#Pentagon prism full#
The medieval and premodern literature was also full of seemingly rational attempts to predict uncertain future events, such as catastrophes or wars.
#Pentagon prism how to#
In the Hellenistic period, the foundation for systematic foresight analysis was already laid by the Oracle of Delphi which – in contrast to popular wisdom – was not based on the incoherent utterances of an ancient intoxicated goddess but on evidence-based information collected by her through listening to the subordinates of any political figure who wanted to pick up a useful hint on how to face the future.
Obtaining due insight into an uncertain future has been a permanent source of rational speculation in the history of mankind. ‘If … then …’ is a conditional proposition that describes precisely a logical causal statement about possible future events. The Pentagon model can be formulated and operationalized as the result of in-depth questionnaires or interviews carried out among stakeholders in relevant case-studies: this has been applied in the above mentioned.
#Pentagon prism drivers#
In other words, such a model offers a valid framework for analysing different problems of an overall system by identifying drivers of the whole system through the identification and analysis of its critical components. In conclusion, Pentagon models applied in various studies show the validity of the model for systems thinking. In addition, a most recent example of the model published by Gülümser in 2009 to underpin sustainable rural development is based on the necessary conditions defined for sustainable development in the Brundtland Report in 1987, and used systems thinking with regard to the physical system, social system, economic system, locality system, and creative system.
For instance, Capello and her colleagues in 1999 and Nijkamp and Pepping in 1998 used the original Pentagon factors, while Nijkamp in 2008 adjusted these factors to assess the highest possible quality of an urban economy, where the Pentagon factors used were: economic capital ecological resources technological systems geographical infrastructure and social suprastructure. In addition, researchers have adjusted the original model to fit any new topic under investigation. Each pentagon model is generated from the original stylized pentagon model, so that critical factors of different systems are developed on the basis of necessary achievement conditions. the evaluation of energy policies (Nijkamp and Pepping, 1998 Capello et al., 1999) the quality of the urban economy (Nijkamp, 2008) sustainable rural development (Gülümser, 2009). The pentagon approach offers a flexible methodology and has been used in various studies, viz. These pentagon factors can be applied to both the supply side and the demand side of economic-ecological-technological systems. environmental amenities) and orgware (e.g. The original Pentagon model, as it was when first developed more than a decade ago, distinguishes five key factors, viz. By determining the critical factors, the Pentagon model is formed by a Pentagon prism which represents the interdependent between the necessary -though not yet sufficient -conditions for successful policies (see Figure 1). They refer to those factors that drive the performance of a system towards levels that are unacceptable from the perspective of a priori specified objectives. The failure conditions are to be interpreted in a Aliye Ahu Akgün, Eveline Van Leeuwen, Peter Nijkamp-Analytical Support Tools for Sustainable Futures 5 different way. conditions refer to the necessary -though not sufficient -conditions that are to be fulfilled to meet a priori given objectives concerning sustainable development, such as economic performance, social cohesion, or ecological quality.
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